July 2026 Visa Bulletin Predictions: EB-2 India May Retrogress Further — What to Expect

July 2026 visa bulletin predictions USCIS green card priority dates
📋 UPDATE — June 16, 2026: ACTUAL BULLETIN RELEASED

The U.S. Department of State published the official July 2026 Visa Bulletin on June 16, 2026. Key results: EB-1 India retrogressed to 10/15/2022 (vs. the 12/15/2022 June cutoff), EB-2 India remains unavailable, and EB-3 China advanced nearly five months to 12/22/2021.

→ See the full July 2026 Visa Bulletin with all cutoff dates →
⚠️ Predictions — July 2026 Bulletin Expected Mid-June: The Department of State typically releases each month’s visa bulletin between the 10th and 15th of the prior month. The July 2026 bulletin is expected around June 10–13, 2026. The forecasts below are based on June 2026 data, FY2026 demand trends, and expert analysis — not the official bulletin. This page will be updated the moment the official bulletin is published.

Why July 2026 Matters: The FY2026 Visa Number Crunch

Every U.S. fiscal year (October 1 – September 30) starts with a fresh allocation of employment-based immigrant visa numbers: 140,000 total, prorated by preference category and by country. By the time summer arrives — particularly July and August — the Department of State is actively managing how many numbers remain before fiscal year-end. When demand outpaces supply, the result is retrogression: priority dates move backward, freezing applicants out of filing or final action.

June 2026 brought significant retrogression for Indian-chargeability applicants, with EB-2 India losing more than 10 months of forward progress in a single bulletin. Expert analysts widely expect this pressure to continue — and potentially intensify — in July and August as FY2026 visa numbers approach exhaustion for certain categories.

June 2026 Final Action Dates: The Baseline

Understanding where we start in June is essential for forecasting July movement. The table below shows the current Final Action Dates from the June 2026 Visa Bulletin for key employment-based categories:

Category All Countries India China Mexico Philippines
EB-1 Current Apr 1, 2023 Apr 1, 2023 Current Current
EB-2 Current Mar 1, 2013 Jun 1, 2020 Current Current
EB-3 Skilled/Prof. Current Jan 15, 2013 Aug 1, 2021 Current Current
EB-3 Other Workers Current Jan 1, 2013 Jan 1, 2015 Current Current
EB-5 (Unreserved) Current Nov 22, 2019 Mar 1, 2016 Current Current

Source: U.S. Department of State, June 2026 Visa Bulletin. Note: “Current” means all applicants in that category with that chargeability country may file or receive final action immediately.

July 2026 Visa Bulletin Predictions by Category

Category & Chargeability June 2026 Date July 2026 Prediction Outlook
EB-1 India Apr 1, 2023 Feb–Mar 2023 (retrogression) or hold ⚠️ Further retrogression likely; “Unavailable” possible by Aug–Sep
EB-1 China Apr 1, 2023 Apr–May 2023 (modest advance) or hold 🟡 Minimal movement; pressure from India may affect China allocation
EB-2 India Mar 1, 2013 Jan–Feb 2013 (retrogression) or hold ⚠️ High probability of further retrogression; risk of “Unavailable” in Aug–Sep
EB-2 China Jun 1, 2020 May–Jun 2020 (hold or minor retrogression) 🟡 Retrogression possible per DOS warning; hold or slight backward movement
EB-3 India Jan 15, 2013 Feb–Mar 2013 (2–6 week advance) ✅ Slow but steady advancement expected; 2–4 week increments typical
EB-3 China Aug 1, 2021 Sep–Oct 2021 (modest advance) ✅ Gradual advancement expected to continue
EB-1/2/3 All Other Current Current ✅ Expected to remain Current

These are analyst predictions based on FY2026 demand trends, prior bulletin movement, and Department of State communications. They are not official and should not be used as the basis for filing decisions without consulting an immigration attorney.

Why EB-2 India Faces Continued Retrogression

The June 2026 Visa Bulletin shocked the EB-2 India community with a retrogression of more than 10 months in a single bulletin — an unusually steep move. The primary driver: India’s per-country cap. Under U.S. law, no single country may receive more than 7% of the 140,000 annual employment-based visas. With India accounting for a disproportionate share of EB-1 and EB-2 petitions, India-chargeability numbers are exhausted faster than other country allocations.

By summer (July–September), the Department of State is actively monitoring remaining visa numbers to prevent overuse before fiscal year-end on September 30. When projected demand exceeds remaining supply, the DOS retrogresssed dates — sometimes dramatically. Analysts at multiple immigration firms have flagged the possibility that EB-2 India and even EB-1 India could be designated “Unavailable” for August or September 2026 if the pace of visa number consumption doesn’t slow.

Family-Based Category Predictions for July 2026

Category Chargeability June 2026 (approx.) July 2026 Prediction
F1 (Unmarried adult children of USC) Worldwide Advancing Moderate forward movement
F2A (Spouses/children of LPR) Worldwide Advancing Continued gradual advancement
F2B (Unmarried adult children of LPR) Worldwide Advancing Slow forward movement
F1/F2B/F3/F4 Mexico Stable/slow advance Relatively stable; may see targeted movement
F1/F3/F4 Philippines Advancing Moderate forward movement

What Should You Do Right Now?

If your priority date is current under the June 2026 Final Action Dates for EB-2 India: File your I-485 immediately if you have not already done so. Further retrogression in July may freeze your date again. Every month of delay risks losing the filing window.

If your priority date is in the Dates for Filing window but not yet Final Action: Consult with your immigration attorney about whether to file the I-485 now using the Dates for Filing chart to “lock in” your place in line. Once filed, a pending I-485 gives you important benefits — including work authorization (EAD) and advance parole — even if your Final Action Date retrogressions later.

If you are on an H-1B and approaching your 6-year cap: The USCIS 7th-year H-1B extension under AC21 (§ 104(c)) requires a pending I-140 approved for at least 365 days or an I-485 already filed. If the EB-2 India date retrogresses to “Unavailable” and you can’t file an I-485, your 7th-year extension eligibility may depend entirely on whether your I-140 has been approved for at least one year. Review your timeline with counsel immediately.

When Will the July 2026 Visa Bulletin Be Published?

The Department of State typically releases the following month’s visa bulletin between the 10th and 15th of the current month. Based on this pattern, the July 2026 Visa Bulletin is expected to be published between June 10 and June 13, 2026. USCIS then usually issues its own announcement confirming which Dates for Filing chart (if any) will be accepted for adjustment of status applications within a few days of the DOS release.

Bookmark this page — we will update it with the official July 2026 dates the moment the bulletin is published.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: When will the July 2026 Visa Bulletin be released?
Expected between June 10–13, 2026. USCIS will follow with its filing chart announcement within a few days.

Q: Will EB-2 India retrogress further in July 2026?
Most analysts expect continued retrogression. The June 2026 bulletin’s 10+ month backward move signals the DOS is aggressively managing remaining FY2026 visa numbers. An “Unavailable” designation for August–September 2026 is a real possibility.

Q: What does “Unavailable” mean in the visa bulletin?
It means no visa numbers are available for that category and country that month. No new I-485 filings are permitted, and no green cards can be issued. The category typically resets on October 1 with a new FY allocation.

Q: Can I still extend my H-1B if EB-2 India goes “Unavailable”?
Yes, if your I-140 has been approved for 365+ days, you qualify for a 3-year H-1B extension beyond the 6-year cap under AC21 — regardless of bulletin availability. Consult your attorney to assess your specific timeline.

Q: Should I file my I-485 now while EB-2 India is current?
If your priority date is before the June 2026 Final Action Date, filing now is generally advisable — it protects your place in line and gives you EAD/advance parole benefits even if your date retrogressses later. Consult your attorney before filing.

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